The Friday Debrief | June 27, 2025
From Precision Bombs to Strategic Chokepoints: What Comes Next in the Gulf
In case you missed it: On June 21, the U.S. executed Operation Midnight Hammer, a precision strike on Iran’s core nuclear infrastructure.
Targets: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan
Assets: 7 B-2 bombers, 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), 2 Dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles
Objective: Degrade Iran’s ability to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels
President Trump and Defense Secretary Hegseth have declared the operation a success, while battle damage assessments are ongoing. Initial reports suggest Fordow was severely damaged, Natanz further degraded, and Isfahan hit with precision Tomahawk strikes.
A ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced shortly after the operation, but the fallout is far from over.
The Strategic Picture
While bombs fell underground, the real strategic aftershock may be playing out on the surface at sea.
Strait of Hormuz at Risk
Location: The narrow maritime chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman
Relevance: Transports 20M+ barrels/day, 20% of global oil and 25% of global Liquified Natural Gas
Current Status:
Iran’s Parliament voted to close the Strait on Sunday
Final decision rests with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council
CENTCOM confirms Iranian mine-laying threats are credible
If closed or mined, U.S. mine warfare units already forward-deployed in the Gulf would face a months-long mission to restore maritime freedom. U.S. and allied warships inside the Gulf could become strategically trapped.
Influence Operations
U.S. Framing:
Measured, successful operation to degrade WMD capability
Not seeking full-scale war
Preemptive + proportionate = legal + legitimate
Iranian Messaging:
Portraying U.S. strike as illegal and escalatory
Framing Hormuz threats as defensive leverage
Rallying proxies and public around the symbolism of resistance
Global Reactions:
China & Russia: Pushing anti-U.S. narrative while calling for de-escalation
OPEC & Asia: Concerned about oil flow, inflation, and regional collapse
Oil Markets: Volatility rising, with price surges anticipated if Hormuz is closed
Watch For:
Hormuz Closure Decision Window
Supreme National Security Council may act within days, not weeks
U.S. Navy is repositioning assets; expect visible maritime deterrence ops
Mine Warfare Activation
CENTCOM’s mine countermeasure force is active in the region
But clearance is slow, deliberate, and high-risk
Mining the strait = escalation threshold for U.S. and allies
Fuel Market Impact
Hormuz closure = direct shock to global oil & LNG markets
U.S. pump prices & Asian energy prices will spike instantly
Narrative manipulation around energy shortages likely to surge online
Bottom Line
The strikes have stopped, but the risks are far from over.
Operation Midnight Hammer may have delayed Iran’s nuclear timeline, but it didn’t erase the threat. The Strait of Hormuz hangs in the balance, and with it, a quarter of the world’s oil supply.
This is the new shape of conflict: not just kinetic, but hybrid. Information, logistics, and perception now define escalation. The information environment is already saturated with distortion, while global markets brace for impact.
Clara Copilot goes beyond the strike, identifying what’s important, eliminating distractions, and equipping decision-makers to anticipate what’s next. Join the Waitlist today.